We are not in an energy transition.

Every few weeks a headline announces that some country "hit 100% renewables." Almost every one is misleading in the same way.

That ~87% share has barely moved in decades.² Solar and wind have grown spectacularly, and yet in 2024, coal consumption hit a record. Oil consumption hit a record. Gas consumption hit a record. Total energy demand hit a record.³ Renewables are being added on top of fossil fuels rather than replacing them. The Energy Institute, whose annual report is the primary source for these numbers, describes the current situation as "an era of energy addition rather than substitution."⁴

Below is the chart that should be on every climate discussion's front page. The fossil fuel bands at the bottom (coal, oil, gas) are not shrinking. They have never shrunk. The colorful ribbons on top (solar, wind) are the famous "renewable revolution."

↑ The fossil fuel bands at the bottom have not shrunk in 50 years. Interactive: drag the time slider, toggle "Relative" for shares. Source: Our World in Data.

Note on data currency: The chart runs through 2024, the most recent authoritative global figures in existence. Global primary energy data is published annually by the Energy Institute in late June, covering the prior calendar year. Full-year 2025 data is expected around June 2026.⁵ This embed will auto-update when Our World in Data refreshes.

The sleight of hand

When you read "Iceland: 100% renewable electricity" or "Scotland: 97% renewable," your brain quietly rounds it off to "they kicked fossil fuels." They did not. Icelanders still burn oil in their cars, trucks, fishing fleet, and airplanes. Electricity is only one slice of the energy pie.

Globally, electricity accounts for roughly 21% of final energy use.⁶ The remaining share is transportation fuels, industrial heat for steel and cement and chemicals, building heat, shipping, aviation, and petrochemical feedstocks. Almost all of it still burns hydrocarbons.

What actually uses energy in the world

A country can have 100% renewable electricity while remaining 70%+ fossil-fueled overall. Welcome to how most "clean energy" headlines work.

But isn't primary energy a misleading metric too?

Yes. And this is the part most of these articles get wrong in the other direction, so it's worth being honest about.

A coal plant wastes about 60% of its fuel as heat.⁷ So when a solar panel produces 1 kWh of electricity, it displaces roughly 2 to 3 kWh of coal primary energy. Similar efficiency gains apply elsewhere: an EV uses roughly 3 to 4 times less energy than a gasoline car for the same distance, and a heat pump delivers 3 to 4 times the heat per unit of input energy compared to a furnace.⁸

This is called the substitution method, and the charts at Our World in Data already use it.⁹ The ~87% figure already credits renewables for their efficiency advantage. Even on the most generous honest accounting, we are roughly 13% of the way there after fifty years of trying.

The parts nobody has figured out yet

Even in the cheeriest scenarios, there are sectors where "just add solar panels" does not work:

• Steel. Making it requires roughly 1,500°C and a chemical reducing agent. Today that agent is coke (a coal derivative). Green hydrogen alternatives exist at pilot scale.¹⁰
• Cement. The chemistry itself releases CO₂ when limestone is cooked. The heat is fossil. Cement accounts for roughly 8% of global emissions.¹¹
• Aviation and shipping. Batteries are too heavy. Synthetic fuels exist but remain expensive and energy-hungry.¹²
• Petrochemicals. Plastics, fertilizers, solvents. Here oil and gas are the raw material, not just the fuel.¹³
• High-temperature industrial heat. Glass, ceramics, refining. Hard to electrify economically.

Collectively these sectors account for roughly a third of global emissions, with no cheap drop-in replacements.¹⁴ This is the actual transition problem. Building more solar farms, while essential, is the easy part.

So what's the right thing to say?

Renewables are working. Solar is the cheapest electricity in history. Wind is cheap. Battery costs are plummeting. Many things are going right.¹⁵

The next time a "Country X runs on 100% renewables!" headline appears, translate it in your head:

"Country X's electricity sector, about a fifth of its energy, is mostly renewable. The other four-fifths is still oil and gas."

We are not in a transition. We are in an addition. A real transition means fossil energy use goes down, in absolute terms, year over year, for a long time. That has not yet happened at a global scale. Until it does, we should be honest that the work has scarcely begun.

References

1. Energy Institute, Statistical Review of World Energy 2025, reporting 2024 data: fossil fuels accounted for ~86–87% of the global energy mix. Note: the EI updated its methodology in the 2025 edition. Renewables are now reported on a direct-energy basis rather than the previous input-equivalent (substitution) basis, which is why the fossil-fuel share appears higher than in older summaries that cited ~80%. The underlying physical quantities of fossil fuel burned are unchanged. energyinst.org/statistical-review
2. Our World in Data, "Share of primary energy consumption that comes from fossil fuels." ourworldindata.org/grapher/fossil-fuels-share-energy
3. Energy Institute, Statistical Review 2025: "For the first time since 2006, all major energy sources, renewables and fossil fuels alike, hit record consumption levels." Global energy supply rose ~2% in 2024.
4. Energy Institute, Statistical Review 2025, press materials and summary via KPMG: "We have entered an era of energy addition rather than substitution." kpmg.com
5. Energy Institute publishes the Statistical Review annually in late June, covering the prior full year. The 2025 edition was released June 26, 2025 with 2024 data. energyinst.org
6. IEA, World Energy Balances: electricity represented approximately 21% of global total final energy consumption in recent years. iea.org/reports/world-energy-balances-overview
7. US Energy Information Administration: typical coal-fired power plant thermal efficiency is 32–42%, meaning roughly 58–68% of the fuel's energy is lost as waste heat. eia.gov
8. US Department of Energy: electric vehicles convert ~77% of grid electricity to motion at the wheels vs. ~12–30% for gasoline ICE vehicles. Heat pumps typically deliver 3–4 units of heat per unit of electricity (COP 3–4). energy.gov/energysaver/electric-vehicles; energy.gov/energysaver/heat-pump-systems
9. Our World in Data: "Primary energy for renewable sources is reported using the 'substitution method'." github.com/owid/energy-data
10. IEA, Iron and Steel Technology Roadmap. Hydrogen-based direct reduction (e.g. HYBRIT, H2 Green Steel) is operating at pilot and early commercial scale. iea.org/reports/iron-and-steel-technology-roadmap
11. Chatham House / IEA estimate: cement production accounts for ~7–8% of global CO₂ emissions, of which roughly 60% is process emissions from calcination of limestone. iea.org/energy-system/industry/cement
12. IEA, Net Zero by 2050, aviation and shipping chapters. Energy density of jet fuel (~43 MJ/kg) versus lithium-ion batteries (~1 MJ/kg) makes full battery-electric long-haul flight infeasible with current technology. iea.org/reports/net-zero-by-2050
13. IEA, The Future of Petrochemicals: petrochemicals account for ~14% of global oil demand and ~8% of gas demand, used as feedstock. iea.org/reports/the-future-of-petrochemicals
14. IEA, Energy Technology Perspectives: heavy industry (steel, cement, chemicals) plus aviation and shipping together account for roughly a third of energy-related CO₂ emissions and are categorized as "hard-to-abate." iea.org/reports/energy-technology-perspectives-2023
15. Lazard, Levelized Cost of Energy Analysis: unsubsidized utility-scale solar PV and onshore wind are among the cheapest sources of new electricity generation. lazard.com